Hurricane Isaias: 110 mph winds, moving N at 18 mph

Watches and warnings

Changes with this advisory:

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

• Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

• Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

• Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish Line, LA to west of Ocean Springs, MS
• East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

• Suwannee River to Yankeetown, FL

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

Discussion and outlook

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 86.6 West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to make landfall along the coast of the western Florida Panhandle within the next hour or two. The center is then expected to move across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected after landfall, and Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A WeatherFlow station in Gulf Breeze, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 83 mph (133 km/h) and a gust of 97 mph (156 km/h). The Pensacola International Airport (KPNS) recently reported a wind gust of 71 mph (115 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).

Hazards affecting land

Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

AL/FL Border to Grayton Beach, FL...6-9 ft Grayton Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...4-7 ft Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...4-6 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border...4-6 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...3-5 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft Lower Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Upper Mobile Bay...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected this evening into early Saturday within the Hurricane Warning area. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Tropical storm conditions are also occurring in the tropical storm warning areas.

Rainfall: From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.

Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas.

Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible across the region, with considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians.

Tornadoes: The risk for tornadoes will continue into this evening and tonight across the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

Surf: Swells from Isaias are affecting much of the Gulf coasts of the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents

Next advisory

Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.